Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2021 Jun 18 2347 UT
Date: 2021 06 18
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
5680 0135 0135 0135 LEA G RBR 410 680

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density77.0
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.79.5

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 10618
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jun 2021, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Jun 2021 until 20 Jun 2021)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jun 2021 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jun 2021 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jun 2021 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 004
---
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels in the last 24 hours.
The only active region on the visible solar disc, NOAA AR2833 (Catania
sunspot group 7), remains with a simple unipolar magnetic filed
configuration and is now rotated towards the central meridian. The X-ray
flare activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 24
hours.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than
2MeV electron flux was predominantly above the 1000 pfu threshold and is
expected to intermittently cross the threshold over the next 24 hours. The
24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at
moderate levels for the next 24 hours and return to nominal levels after.
Over the past 24h the solar wind (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the
influence of a waning high speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed
smoothly varied between 472 km/s and 556 km/s. The total magnetic field was
low in the range of 2.7 nT to 5.5 nT. The Bz component also remained weak
with values between -4.7 nT and 3.5 nT. The solar temperature remained
elevated and the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field remained
in the negative sector, reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective
coronal hole.
The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled.
mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next
24 hours. Isolated active periods are unlikely, but remain possible until
the effects of the HSS fully fade away.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 019, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Jun 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 075
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014
AK WINGST : 006
ESTIMATED AP : 007
ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2833 (N22E04, Hsx/alpha) was
unchanged and inactive during the period. A new region emerged near
N20W60, but was also inactive and remains unnumbered at this time. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 18-20 Jun.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,180 pfu at 18/0000 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels 18-19 Jun in response to CH HSS influence, and then return
to mostly moderate levels by 20 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels in the absence of
significant active regions.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a persistent, yet waning CH HSS
regime. Wind speeds slightly decreased from near 550 km/s to near 500
km/s by periods end. Total field averaged 3-5 nT and the Bz component
was +/- 4 nT. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector.
---
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to a slower wind
regime on 18-20 Jun as the coronal hole moves out of a geo-effective
position.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
18 Jun. Mostly quiet conditions are expected prevail 19-20 Jun.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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