Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2021 Sep 27 1537 UT
Date: 2021 09 27
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
7410 + 0002 //// 0002 PAL C RSP 025-052 III/1
7420 0051 //// 0056 LEA C RSP 025-057 III/1
7430 + 0231 //// 0259 LEA C RSP 025-174 VI/3
7440 + 0858 0923 0930 G16 5 XRA 1-8A B2.6 4.1E-04 2871

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density87.6
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.88.0

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 10927
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Sep 2021, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 27 Sep 2021 until 29 Sep 2021)
SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Sep 2021 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Sep 2021 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Sep 2021 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 007
---
COMMENT: Four active regions (ARs) present on the visible solar disk. No
flares above the B-class level in the past 24 hours. Over the next 24
hours, C-class flares can be expected, in particular from NOAA AR 2871
which has a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration (the other 3 ARs have a
beta magnetic field configuration).
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data in the last
24 hours.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay there in the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. Over the
next 24 hours, it is expected to remain below the threshold. The electron
fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours, and is expected to
remain so for the next 24 hours.
Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed has been around 400 km/s. The
total magnetic field strength had reached 11 nT, while its Bz component
reached -6 nT. This slightly elevated magnetic field, together with low
temperature plasma, could mark the expected arrival of the ICMEs from 23
and 24 September. Due to the low speeds and mostly positive Bz, the effect
is very mild, the situation may change in the coming hours since more than
one ICME was expected.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 1-3)
over the past 24 hours. Active periods can be expected over the next 24
hours.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 049, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Sep 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 086
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 006
AK WINGST : 002
ESTIMATED AP : 001
ESTIMATED ISN : 048, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2871 (S27W32,
Cai/beta-gamma) produced some B-class flare activity during the period.
The region continued to exhibit area consolidation and a slight decrease
in spot count. Region 2872 (N16W47, Bxo/beta) showed some decay, but did
produce some B-class flare activity. Regions 2877 (S18W06, Bxo/beta) and
2878 (S22E29, Cao/beta) were both quiet and generally unchanged. New
Region 2879 (N13W24, Bxo/beta) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar
group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely,
over 27-29 Sep.
---
Energetic Particles
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate over 27-28 Sep with moderate to high levels on 29 Sep due to CH
HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through about
26/2200 UTC with a weak magnetic field and slow winds speeds at an
average of about 390 km/s. After 26/200 UTC, total field increased to a
maximum of 11 nT at 26/0515 UTC, Bz reached a maximum southward extent
of -6 nT at 27/0147 UTC and density increased to a maximum reading of
about 15 pp/cm at 27/0741 UTC. Wind speeds remained steady at about 390
km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation.
---
.Forecast...
The anticipated influence of a positive polarity, polar-connected CH HSS
is expected to enhance solar wind parameters later on 27 Sep with
further enhancements possible on 27-28 Sep due to effects from the
arrival of the 23 Sep CMEs.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
---
.Forecast...
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 27-28
Sep due to a possible glancing blow from the 23 Sep CMEs followed by the
arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are
expected on 29 Sep as conditions persist.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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