SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2021 Sep 23 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 10923
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Sep 2021, 1250UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Sep 2021 until 25 Sep 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2021  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2021  10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2021  10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours, the regions reported yesterday have been
present on the solar disk. One more unnamed region has appeared to the
vicinity of the SE. A M2.9 flare originated from region Catania 45/NOAA
2871 (magnetic type beta-delta) has been recorded. Over the next 24 hours,
C-class flares can be expected.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been conformed in the
available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert
threshold. Over the next 24 hours, it is expected to increase towards the
threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours. Over the next 24 hours they are expected to remain at those levels,
increasing towards moderate levels.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed varied from 360 to 405 km/s.
The total magnetic field strength had values between 2 and 6 nT, while its
Bz component varied between -5 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field
phi angle has been mainly on the positive sector (directed away from the
Sun) with small variations. Solar wind parameters are expected to be
further enhanced over the next 24 hours, in the small chance of the arrival
of the CME from Sep 19 and effects of the high speed stream associated with
the negative Coronal Hole present on Central Meridian. An extension of the
northern positive coronal hole will cross central meridian tomorrow.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels, with an active
periods on Sep 23 06:00-09:00UT (NOAA Kp 1-4 and K Dourbes 1-3) over the
past 24 hours. Unsettled conditions with possibility of active events can
be expected over the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 076, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Sep 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 089
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 016
AK WINGST              : 014
ESTIMATED AP           : 014
ESTIMATED ISN          : 080, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
23  0435  0442 0450 S27E21 M2.8 1N       45/2871      VI/2II/2 
END

UMAGF 30503 10923 1004/ 22063 1/016 23221 32322
UMAGF 31523 10923 0000/ 22006 1/014 24333 32133
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.