SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2022 Jan 24 1242 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20124
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Jan 2022, 1240UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Jan 2022 until 26 Jan 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jan 2022  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 017
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels with with some C1-class flares
over the last 24 hours. The 2 visible active regions on the solar disk are
both with alpha magnetic field configuration. Solar activity is expected to
remind mostly low with possible C-class flare in the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the
available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours. The CME that erupted
on 22 January at 10:36 UT (angular width about 90 degrees) was directed
mostly towards the North East. It could have an Earth directed component,
with expected arrival on 26 January.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold
in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain close to the threshold in
the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate
levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at between nominal and
moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at Earth is about 300 km/s, and the interplanetary
magnetic field around 1 nT and 6 nT. The high-speed streams from an
equatorial Coronal Hole (positive polarity) that traverse the central
meridian on Jan 21 may enhance the solar wind parameters near Earth later
today and tomorrow.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet locally (K_Bel 0 - 2) and at planetary
levels (Kp 2 - 3). The CME from 20 January may still arrive to the Earth in
the next 24 hours, increasing geomagnetic conditions to active or even
minor storm levels may occur. Geomagnetic conditions are also expected to
become unsettled later today and tomorrow in response to the arrival of the
high-speed streams from an equatorial Coronal Hole (positive polarity).

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 027, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 23 Jan 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 094
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 020, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.