SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2021 Aug 01 1240 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 10801
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Aug 2021, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Aug 2021 until 03 Aug 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Aug 2021  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 002
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2021  10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2021  10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 004
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless and the X-ray flux is below
C-level. A long duration B2.4-class flare was observed near NOAA AR-2849
Plage. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next
24 hours.

A large coronal dimming associated with the long duration B2.4-class flare
was observed on July 31 from 15:54 UTC to 18:06 UTC in the south-west
quadrant (near latitude -12 degrees and longitude 30 degree). Further
investigation on this event will be provided as data comes in.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron
fluence was at normal levels in the last 24 hours and is expected to stay
at normal levels for the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters (as observed by ACE and DSCOVR) show the
continuation of a slow return towards an ambient background and slow solar
wind speed regime. Solar wind speed decreased from about 460 km/s to 400
km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT. The
Bz component underwent only weak deviations between -4.0nT and +3.5 nT. The
solar wind conditions are expected to continue it slow returned toward a
slow solar wind speed regime. The solar wind may be temporarily slightly
enhanced later today due to some possible effect of the arrival of the
coronal mass ejection observed on July 28 at 10:36 UTC (with a projected
speed of 400 km/s).

The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the past 24 hours with
some short periods of unsettled condition observed at the local station
Dourbes (K-Dourbes = 3). The conditions are expected to remain quiet as the
Earth is expected to remain in the mostly slow solar wind speed regime for
the next 24 hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 010, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 31 Jul 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 076
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 002, BASED ON 28 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.