SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2021 Oct 18 1247 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 11018
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Oct 2021, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Oct 2021 until 20 Oct 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2021  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2021  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2021  10CM FLUX: 082 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. A new region has just
rotated over the east solar limb (S18E74, Catania sunspot region 64) for
which an accurate assessment of the magnetic field complexity is not yet
possible. Additionally, a small sunspot has emerged in the western
hemisphere (Catania sunspot region 63) but has not produced any activity.
Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next 24 hours with a low
probability of C-class flares from the new active region that has just
rotated onto the solar disk.

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph
imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is
expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h
electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements by DSCOVR over the past 24 hours showed some
enhancements in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). The total magnetic
field increased to a maximum value of 13 nT. The Bz varied between -9 and
+11 nT and had an extended period of negative Bz until 03 UT Oct 18. The
solar wind speed ranged between 315 km/s and 380 km/s. The solar wind speed
and magnetic field are expected to be enhanced on Oct 18 and 19, due to the
arrival the High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the with the small
positive Coronal Hole (CH) and subsequently the larger negative polarity
extension of the southern polar CH which began to cross the central
meridian on Oct 16.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes
2-4 and 1-3, respectively) over the past 24 hours in response to the
extended period of negative Bz. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
active on Oct 18 and Oct 19, with minor storm conditions possible, due to
the arrival of the aforementioned HSS.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 017, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Oct 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 077
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : ///
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.